Σχόλιο Θ.Π.: ο Πούτιν
θα παρελαύνει μέσα στην Συρία και η CIA θα διαβεβαιώνει πάλι τον Ομπάμα (όπως στην Κριμαία) ότι δεν συντρέχει λόγος
ανησυχίας.
ΕΧΕΙ ΗΔΗ
ΔΗΜΙΟΥΡΓΗΘΕΙ Η ΒΑΣΗ ΤΩΝ ΡΩΣΙΚΩΝ ΔΥΝΑΜΕΩΝ - ΔΕΙΤΕ ΤΗΝ ΑΝΑΦΟΡΑ ΤΟΥ STRATFOR
του Βασίλη Καπούλα
Επιβεβαιώνει πλήρως το Stratfor σε αποκαλυπτική έκθεση του
τα όσα σας παρουσιάσαμε χτες (εδώ, εδώ και εδώ)
μιλώντας ευθέως για «απόβαση» του Ρωσικού στρατού στην Συρία ώστε να στηρίξει
τον συριακό λαό απέναντι στην εισβολή των τζιχαντιστών ενώ διαβεβαιώνει
ότι «ήδη δημιουργήθηκε η βάση των Ρωσικών δυνάμεων εντός πολεμικού αεροδρομίου»
προκαλώντας σοκ σε δύση και ΗΠΑ.
Εκατοντάδες Ρώσοι στρατιώτες και αξιωματικοί κάνουν την
προεργασία για την άφιξη χιλιάδων στρατιωτών που θα πέσουν στην μάχη κατά της
ισλαμικής τρομοκρατίας ενώ και η Ρωσική βάση πλησίον της Δαμασκού θα μπορέσει
να εμπλακεί επισήμως στις μάχες με το πρόσχημα της προστασίας της βάσης από
επιθέσεις.
Η Ρωσία είναι στη διαδικασία ευρύτερης επέκτασης της
ανάμειξης της στη σύγκρουση στη Συρία. Υπάρχει αναφορά ότι στις 31 Αυγούστου
μια ρωσική εκστρατευτική δύναμη έχει ήδη φτάσει στη Συρία δημιουργώντας τις
βάσεις για μια αεροπορική βάση κοντά στη Δαμασκό.
Αναμένονται χιλιάδες ρώσοι στρατιώτες τις επόμενες
βδομάδες, στρατιωτικοί σύμβουλοι, εκπαιδευτές, τεχνικό προσωπικό μαζί με
πολεμικές μοίρες, άγνωστο αριθμό ακόμη αεροσκαφών και επιθετικών ελικοπτέρων!
Η βοήθεια εκτείνεται από επιπλέον υλικό, πολεμικό
εξοπλισμό, πληροφορίες μυστικών υπηρεσιών για τις θέσεις των ισλαμιστών.
Υπάρχουν στοιχεία που δείχνουν ότι η Ρωσία αναλαμβάνει ενεργό ρόλο.
Το Stratfor "ανίχνευσε" Ρώσους σε πρόσφατες
μάχες από υλικό που αποκτήθηκε στη Συρία (χτες πρώτοι σας το είχαμε αποκαλύψει εδώ),
υπάρχει επιπλέον συνεργασία με ρωσικό στρατιωτικό προσωπικό ή ακόμη και με
ρωσόφωνους μισθοφόρους.
Την 12η Αυγούστου σύμφωνα με την ιστοσελίδα alSouria.net
είχαμε την άφιξη ρωσικού στρατιωτικού προσωπικού στο Λιμάνι Slenfeh, 30
χιλιόμετρα ανατολικά της Λατάκειας.
Εικάζεται ότι πρόκειται για άνδρες των περίφημων ρωσικών
ειδικών δυνάμεων οι οποίοι έχουν «ειδική αποστολή» όσον αφορά την «εξαφάνιση»
της ηγεσίας του ISIL αλλά και «επιχειρήσεων» εναντίον των τουρκικών δυνάμεων
που έχουν συμμαχήσει με τους τζιχαντιστές παρά τους εικονικούς
"βομβαρδισμούς" στους οποίους έχουν προσχωρήσει μαζί με τις ΗΠΑ!
Σε μια αιφνιδιαστική εξέλιξη, τα ρωσικά μέλη των ειδικών
δυνάμεων μένουν στην πόλη της Λατάκεια, στο λιμάνι Slenfeh με σκοπό την
προστασία των χωριών που στηρίζουν τον Μπασάρ αλ Άσαντ και
"τροφοδοτούν" με νέα μέλη τον Συριακό στρατό.
Υπενθυμίζουμε ότι η Ρωσία έστειλε το αποβατικό «Nikolai
Filchenkov κατάφορτο με αδιευκρίνιστο αριθμό ρωσικών τεθωρακισμένων ΤΟΜΑ
BTR-82A, φορτηγά ΚΑΜΑΖ, GAZ 66 και πυρυαλικά συστήματα ενώ είχε στείλει και ένα
ρωσικό An-124 μεταφέροντας M-46 MM1954 130 με εμβέλεια 27 χλμ και 1.000
Kornet-9M133 μαζί και ΠΕΠ BM-27 Uragan.
Δείτε ολόκληρο το άρθρο του Stratfor:
Russia could be in the process of greatly expanding its
involvement in the Syrian conflict, according to sources from Israeli news
source Ynet. An Aug. 31 report suggests that a Russian expeditionary force has
already arrived in Syria, setting up camp in a loyalist air base near Damascus.
If the reporting is accurate, it could be an early indication that Russia will
throw its heft behind the Syrian air campaign against the Islamic State and the
rebel-aligned factions in the country. According to Ynet, thousands of Russian
military personnel are expected to arrive in Syria in the coming weeks,
including military advisers and instructors as well as logistics and technical
personnel. Additionally, members of the aerial protection division are
expected, alongside pilots who will fly an unknown number of fighter aircraft
and attack helicopters.
It is Stratfor's assessment that Russia is steadily
increasing its support for Damascus. This assistance ranges from the provision
of extra materiel, weaponry and equipment to the greater sharing of
intelligence on rebel positions and dispositions. Russian pilots and aircraft
mechanics also have a long history of serving in foreign air forces in conflict
zones, either at the behest of the government or as private contractors. Evidence
that Russia is taking a more combative role is already emerging. Stratfor
identified Russian-language speakers in recent combat footage obtained from
Syria, further corroborating the likelihood that either Russian military
personnel or Russian-speaking private military contractors are now actively
involved in the conflict.
Nevertheless, Stratfor has yet to see concrete evidence of
expanded Russian participation in the Syrian conflict on the scale suggested by
Ynet. In fact, cases of false reporting are common, especially where direct
Russian support is concerned. Previous reports of MiG-31 interceptor transfers
to Syria were never proved, leading to subsequent Russian denials.
When it comes to providing decisive support to Syria,
Russia is torn. Moscow is trying to position itself as a credible power that
can negotiate a political solution to the Syrian conflict, yet the Kremlin is
also keen to bolster the forces of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. If it
hopes to reach a favorable settlement, Russia must ensure that loyalist forces
do not suffer devastating losses: A weak Damascus would make it harder for
Russia to reach an understanding with the rebels and their backers that would
safeguard its overall interests in Syria and the region. Thus, it makes sense
for Moscow to bolster Syria's defenses, but a full military commitment is
unlikely. Such an intervention in the conflict would undermine Russia's
position as a strong mediator, calling into question Moscow's overall objectivity.
Regardless, given the inherent volatility of the Syrian conflict, Stratfor will
closely watch for any further signs of increased Russian involvement in the
conflict.
Elsewhere in Syria, Islamic State fighters battling Syrian
rebels moved closer than ever to central Damascus. Street battles reportedly
raged in the Asali neighborhood of the capital's southern Qadam district over
the weekend, killing at least 15 fighters as Islamic State militants seized at
least two streets. The district had been relatively quiet since rebels and
government forces reached a localized truce a year ago. Stratfor sources
indicate that Moscow may finally have been able to get Damascus and the
mainstream rebel opposition to broadly agree on elements of a political transition
of power in Syria.
Aug. 29
Syria
Russia long supplied Syrian President Bashar al Assad's
forces with the vast majority of their weaponry. Though Iran has since replaced
Russia as the primary weapons-provider to the Syrian government, the Russians
have continued to ship substantial volumes of small arms, ammunition, spare
parts and refurbished material to pro-Damascus forces over the course of the
Syrian civil war. This aid, along with support from Iran and other allies, has
been vital in maintaining the loyalist armies. And over the last week, there
have been indications that the Russians are increasing their support for the al
Assad government.
On Aug. 20, the Alligator-class landing ship Nikolay
Filchenkov from the Russian Black Sea Fleet was spotted in the Bosporus (σας το
αποκαλύψαμε εδώ).
On the deck of the amphibious warship, and within the cargo hold as well, were
numerous army vehicles and armored personnel carriers, almost certainly headed
for the Syrian coast. The same week, videos emerged of BTR-82A armored
personnel carriers in action alongside the Syrian Republican Guard and National
Defense Forces in the Latakia Mountains. Bearing markings unusual for Syrian
equipment, the vehicles are likely recent deliveries from Russia. Recent photos
show more Russian equipment recently arrived in Syria, including GAZ Tigr
all-terrain mobility vehicles and UR-77 mine-clearing vehicles. Furthermore, on
top of a recent rise in Russian military cargo flights into the two Syrian
coastal provinces of Tartus and Latakia, reports from sources close to the
Syrian government indicate Russia is enhancing its intelligence-sharing program
with the Syrians, including the provision of satellite pictures of the
battlefield.
The increase in Russian aid is a clear reminder that the
Russians are not abandoning the Syrian government. Rather, even as Moscow
attempts to mediate a negotiated solution to the Syrian crisis that will
safeguard its interests in the region, it will continue to exert considerable
effort to make sure the Syrian government can hold its own on the battlefield. It
is unlikely that this aid alone will reverse the outcome of the conflict to
favor al Assad's forces, because, although generous, it neither fulfills all
the Syrian loyalists' weapons requirements nor solves their manpower problems. Still,
additional equipment from Russia will bolster the forces as they seek to
prevent further rebel gains into their core territories.
However, the origins of the funds being used for these
weapons are a mystery. Russia may be providing the increased support without
direct financial compensation or the Iranians may have financed the latest
Russian shipments. Iran is widely suspected to be behind past aid to Syrian
loyalists. It is clear, though, that the money is not coming from Syria itself.
Al Assad's government is in dire economic straits and is likely unable to
purchase more weapons on its own.
Aug. 19
Syria
Stratfor receives insight from many sources around the
world, along with reports not available for public consumption. It is important
to caveat that many reports are unconfirmed or speculative in nature, though
they provide valuable context. Interpreting information and compiling multiple
data points to build a picture is part of intelligence analysis. Any and all
reporting is carefully filtered before being disseminated by Stratfor, yet some
insight is worth sharing on its own merits, such as this account from Syria,
below.
Russia is heavily invested in the Syrian conflict and has
a significant stake in shaping any enduring peace. Stratfor sources indicate
that Moscow may have finally been able to get Damascus and the mainstream rebel
opposition to broadly agree on elements of a political transition of power in
Syria. Russia has long insisted that present Syrian President Bashar al Assad
must remain in power during any transition. This is a sticking point for many
of the rebel groups, but Moscow appears to have been able to negotiate a middle
ground. As Stratfor previously noted Aug. 7:
A flurry of meetings is taking place as stakeholders in
the Syrian conflict attempt to work out a power-sharing agreement to replace
the government of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Russia has been driving the
negotiation, while Oman acts as a neutral mediator relaying messages to and
from Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia and the United States. Though
the diplomatic activity is picking up, it is still an outside effort divorced
from the reality of the battlefield, where Syrian rebels are fighting the al
Assad government on their own terms.
According to reports received by Stratfor, al Assad will
remain in power during a transition, then cede his political responsibilities
to Farouk al-Shara, who will assume the role of Syria's prime minister during
the changeover period. In exchange for remaining as a politically neutered
figurehead, al Assad will have to let go Syrian National Security Bureau chief
Gen. Ali Mamlouk. The opposition will then choose a replacement for Mamlouk — a
person that is acceptable to al Assad. The role of army chief of staff would be
awarded to an unspecified Alawite and, in addition, the minister of defense
portfolio would go to a former brigade commander from the Syrian Republican
Guard, Manaf Tlass, who defected to the West in 2012. Stratfor had earlier
received word from sources that Tlass, a Sunni, whose family has a
long-standing alliance with the al Assad clan, was preparing to re-enter the
political scene after spending much of the civil war in Paris.
After a highly publicized defection in 2012, Tlass has
been in Paris, keeping a low profile and waiting for the right time to insert
himself into negotiations. The Tlass family has a long history with the al
Assad family: Manaf's father, Mustafa Tlass, helped rally strong military and
Sunni support for al Assad when he took power in 2000. In 2012, we noted that
the two families were likely to strike a deal to enable the Tlass family to
leave Syria, and we forecast that Manaf Tlass would eventually return to play a
role in a power-sharing arrangement. Given that Tlass is a Sunni with a
military background who has also maintained close links with the al Assad
administration, it is little wonder that he is now allegedly being proffered as
a suitable candidate for defense minister in a new Syrian government.
Though Stratfor is unable to confirm the specificity of
this insight, there is nothing that is particularly implausible. Farouk
al-Shara is one of the more acceptable candidates for the opposition: He is
Sunni Muslim, a known nationalist, and publically sought a negotiated solution
to the crisis rather than a military one. He also has strong family ties to the
rebel-dominated Daraa province. On the other hand, he is staunchly loyal to the
al Assad government and is deeply embedded in the Baath Party. Tlass meets the
criteria of being a Sunni, but it will be difficult for him to win the trust of
the broader Sunni rebellion, which perceives him as being too close to the al
Assads. He will also be regarded as out of touch with reality on the ground
after spending years in Europe instead of
joining the fight.
As
Stratfor previously noted, any agreement between Moscow Damascus
Aug. 17
A
previously arranged cease-fire between Syrian rebels and loyalist forces,
including Hezbollah elements, collapsed over the weekend. Originally scheduled
to end Aug. 16, the cease-fire was in part mediated by Iran and Turkey Syria Syria
Farther
north, the Islamic State showed its determination to hold onto territory in Aleppo province, despite the overarching threat from U.S. Mare , undoubtedly assisted by the
withdrawal of Jabhat al-Nusra forces from front-line positions against the
Islamic State in Aleppo
Syria
Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al Assad have
launched an offensive in rural Aleppo province aimed at reaching the
government-held Kweiris air base, which is currently under siege by the Islamic
State. With the disastrous August 2014 loss of Tabqa air base fresh in their
minds, the Syrian government is keenly aware that an Islamic State massacre of
the Kweiris defenders could trigger another wave of popular discontent among
the loyalist population. Indeed, over the last few days, there have been a few
demonstrations in the government stronghold of Tartus calling on Damascus to
break the siege and to get its soldiers out of Kweiris air base.
The air base is around 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the
nearest loyalist lines. The government push to break the siege is a risky
endeavor because it is being launched with hastily gathered forces at a time
when the loyalists are under significant pressure across the country. The
forces will have to contend with potential Islamic State attacks on both flanks
and the possibility that the relief force might itself become cut off from
assistance. For the defenders of the Kweiris air base, however, the relief
force may be their last chance: They have been under siege now for years and
are suffering from steady attrition.
pronews.gr
